Employment Report Game

We urge you to play the game several times. Get a feel for the likely spread of results. In particular, if you took advantage of the inside information, see how well you do even given the TRUTH.

Those who want to see a more complete analysis should choose advanced tools for a real in-depth assessment of forecasts.

A deeper look into the technical background: Game Technical Notes

Here is the game. You start out with a balance in your account. Guess what the next BLS jobs report will show as the seasonally-adjusted change in nonfarm jobs (x1000) for one month. You win if your guess is close to the BLS report. You lose if your guess is not close. The closer you are, the more you can win. The farther off you are, the more you can lose.

Your balance:

Rules: The market usually views an error of 20,000 jobs as pretty significant. If a gain of 140,000 jobs is expected, and the result is only 120,000, the pundits will call it a "weak number" or a "big disappointment" etc. In our game we give you a payoff of 3.5 - 1 on your bet if you nail the number. Your payoff decreases dramatically as you get farther off.

Here is a review or shortcut for playing the game after you know the basics.

A trusted research advisor suggests that the four indicators below are really good predictors of the true job growth for the month. The links display a page of charts with relevance to the game and these indicators.

Change in Leading Economic Indicators (1 month).

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

   ISM manufacturing survey index.

   New unemployment claims X 1,000.

Now that you have collected and evaluated your research, it is time to guess what the next BLS monthly jobs report will be. That is, guess what the next BLS jobs report will show as the seasonally-adjusted change in nonfarm jobs (x1000) for one month.

Click 'BLS' to find out the next BLS estimate of change in jobs (x 1,000) from last month to this month consistent with the information above.

Here is a review or shortcut for playing the game after you know the basics.

In real life, BLS makes only one employment report each month. But what if you could make them do it again? Go ahead, click "BLS" again to find another value for month-to-month change in employment, consistent with the information above. You can keep your old guess or change it, if you like.

 

Comments and Feedback: We would encourge you to send us information about high scores or comments about the experience. We will post the most helpful and insightful comments for the benefit of other players. Thank you!